emergency manager11 November 2018

Cyclonic Storm Gaja to hit India

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The Deep Depression over southeast & adjoining Central Bay of Bengal moved west-­northwestwards with a speed
of 12 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm Gaja and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 11th November, 2018 over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast & West-central Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.4°N and longitude 89.3°E, about 400 km northwest of Portblair (Andaman Islands), 990 km east of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 1050 km east­southeast of Nellore (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.
[caption id=attachment_3350 align=alignnone width=808]India India Satellite image weather map 11 Nov 2018[/caption]
It is very likely to move west­ northwestwards during next 36 hours and then west-­south-westwards towards north Tamilnadu ­south Andhra Pradesh coasts during the subsequent 48 hours.
However, while moving west­-southwestwards it is also likely to weaken gradually and cross north Tamilnadu ­south Andhra Pradesh coasts as Cyclonic Storm during 15th November forenoon.
A Western Disturbance has started affecting Western Himalayan Region from today.
The Deep Depression over southeast & adjoining Central Bay of Bengal moved west-­northwestwards with a
speed of 12 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm Gaja and lay centred at 0530 hours IST
of today, the 11th November, 2018 over East-central and adjoining Southeast & West-central Bay of Bengal near
latitude 13.4°N and longitude 89.3°E, about 400 km northwest of Portblair (Andaman Islands), 990 km east of
Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 1050 km east-­southeast of Nellore (Andhra Pradesh).
It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west­-north-westwards during next 36 hours and then west-­southwestwards towards north Tamilnadu­ ,south Andhra Pradesh coasts during the subsequent 48 hours. However, while moving west­-south-westwards it is also likely to weaken gradually and cross north Tamilnadu ­south Andhra Pradesh coasts as Cyclonic Storm during 15th November forenoon.
♦The trough of low at mean sea level from Maldive ­Comorin area to Lakshadweep area with an embedded
cyclonic circulation extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level over Lakshadweep area persists.
♦The cyclonic circulation over west Assam & neighbourhood between 1.5 km & 4.5 km above mean sea level
persists.
♦The Western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation between 3.6 km & 4.5 km above mean sea level
over northern parts of Jammu & Kashmir & neighbourhood has moved away east­-north-eastwards.
♦The Western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation at 3.1 km above mean sea level over northeast
Afghanistan & neighbourhood persists.
Weather Forecast for next 2 days
Shallow to moderate fog in the morning hours likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &
Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during next 5 days and over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi
and West Uttar Pradesh during next 2 days.
No significant change in minimum temperature likely over the country during next 2 days.
Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days from 16th November to 18th November 2018
♦Very rough to high Seas are likely to prevail over southwest Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu
and south-coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall.
♦Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity likely over Tamilnadu and Kerala and scattered to fairly
widespread rainfall activity over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and
Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
♦Dry weather likely over the rest of the country