Monsoon Highlights of the past week (02 -08 august,2018)
Southwest Monsoon
o Forecast for the Second Half of the Southwest Monsoon Season the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the and September) is likely to be 95% of of ±8%. The rainfall during August 2018 is likely to be 96 ± 9% of LPA and expected to be higher than predicted in June.
o A Low pressure area formed over 2nd half of the week, subsequently concentrated into a Depression
Odisha –West Bengal coasts and over Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood at the end of the week. It
widespread to widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy and extremely
heavy falls over eastern parts of Central India.
o During the week, southwest monsoon was India. It was excess over sub-divisions of Country.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during southwest monsoon 2018 upto 08 August, 2018 was below LPA by 10%.
Chief synoptic conditions as on 09 August, 2018
o A low pressure area lies over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh and
neighbourhood.
o The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes south of its normal position.
o A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood around 13th August.
o A cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood between 1.5
km & 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with height.
o A cyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal & adjoining south Coastal
Andhra Pradesh at 7.6 km above mean sea level.
Large scale features as on 09 August, 2018
o The ENSO(El Niño–Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions continued to prevail over
equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latest MMCFS(Monsoon Mission Coupled
Forecasting System) forecast indicates that ENSO neutral conditions are likely to
persist during the monsoon season.
o Currently, neutral IOD (+0.05°C) conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian
Ocean. Neutral IOD conditions are likely to prevail during next 2 weeks.
o Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is in Phase-6 with high amplitude, it is likely
to move in Phase-7 with high amplitude towards end of next one week.
o The real time MISO forecast of IITM, MoES based on 08 August indicates that the
MISO index is currently located in phase 8 (southern tip and peninsular India) with
amplitude < 1. It is likely to move gradually to phase 1 (Peninsula and adjoining
central India) with decreasing amplitude during next two weeks.
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Monsoon Highlights of the past week (02 -08 august,2018)
Southwest Monsoon
o Forecast for the Second Half of the Southwest Monsoon Season the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the and September) is likely to be 95% of of ±8%. The rainfall during August 2018 is likely to be 96 ± 9% of LPA and expected to be higher than predicted in June.
o A Low pressure area formed over 2nd half of the week, subsequently concentrated into a Depression
Odisha –West Bengal coasts and over Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood at the end of the week. It
widespread to widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy and extremely
heavy falls over eastern parts of Central India.
o During the week, southwest monsoon was India. It was excess over sub-divisions of Country.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during southwest monsoon 2018 upto 08 August, 2018 was below LPA by 10%.
Chief synoptic conditions as on 09 August, 2018
o A low pressure area lies over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh and
neighbourhood.
o The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes south of its normal position.
o A fresh low pressure area is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood around 13th August.
o A cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood between 1.5
km & 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with height.
o A cyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal & adjoining south Coastal
Andhra Pradesh at 7.6 km above mean sea level.
Large scale features as on 09 August, 2018
o The ENSO(El Niño–Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions continued to prevail over
equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latest MMCFS(Monsoon Mission Coupled
Forecasting System) forecast indicates that ENSO neutral conditions are likely to
persist during the monsoon season.
o Currently, neutral IOD (+0.05°C) conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian
Ocean. Neutral IOD conditions are likely to prevail during next 2 weeks.
o Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is in Phase-6 with high amplitude, it is likely
to move in Phase-7 with high amplitude towards end of next one week.
o The real time MISO forecast of IITM, MoES based on 08 August indicates that the
MISO index is currently located in phase 8 (southern tip and peninsular India) with
amplitude < 1. It is likely to move gradually to phase 1 (Peninsula and adjoining
central India) with decreasing amplitude during next two weeks.
