emergency manager19 August 2018

Rainfall forecast for Kerala

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Exceptionally High Seasonal rainfall Scenario is being seen over Kerala so far .IMD has predicted further rainfall in Kerala in coming days with a decreased intensity. Rainfall over Kerala during southwest monsoon season 2018 (1 June to 19 August, 2018) has been exceptionally high. Kerala so far received 2346.6 mm against normal of 1649.5 mm (above normal by 42%). The spatial distribution of district-wise seasonal rainfall is shown in Annexure 1. It indicates that highest excess rainfall is recorded over Idukki District (92% above normal) followed by Palakkad (72% above normal). The rainfall over Kerala during June, July and August (1-19 August) has been 15%, 18% and 164% above normal respectively . Rainfall during August, 2018 so far has been exceptionally high. The rainfall over Kerala has been in general above normal throughout the season . Specially, there were two consecutive active spells with above normal rainfall peaking around 14 & 20 June respectively. Another peak rainfall activity was experienced around 20 July. Fresh spell of active rainfall commenced since 8 August and continued till 16 August. Thereafter, there has been gradual decrease in rainfall over Kerala Due to the above rainfall scenario prevailed till end of July, 2018 over Kerala, all of major 35 odd reservoirs storage was close to the full reservoir level (FRL) and had no buffer storage to accommodate the heavy inflows from 10th August. The continued exceptional heavy rainfall in August (with 170% above normal so far) in the catchment areas had compelled the authorities to resort to heavy releases downstream into the rivers. Such a scenario that continued for almost a week now has caused overflowing of all river banks leading to widespread flooding almost all over the state. Forecast over Kerala till 23 August A fresh low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal today, the 19th August 2018 morning, however it will not have any significant impact over Kerala. Rainfall activity over Kerala is likely to decrease further gradually during next 5 days except for some isolated pockets of heavy rainfall (7-11 cm) on 19th August.