NIC STORM ‘BULBUL’ (PRONOUNCED AS BUL BUL) OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND ADJOING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 7
TH NOVEMBER 2019,
OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LAT.16.4°N AND LONG.
87.8°E ABOUT 450 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 580 KM SOUTH OF SAGAR ISLANDS
(42903) AND 670 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER TILL EARLY MORNING OF 9TH NOVEMBER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE INITIALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS FOR NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN NEARLY NORTHWARDS TILL 9TH NOVEMBER
MORNING. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS WEST
BENGAL - BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL) AND KHEPUPARA
(BANGLADESH) DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF 10TH NOVEMBER.
CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T 3.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
BETWEEN LAT. 13.0°N TO 20.0°N AND LONG. 85.0°E TO 91.5°E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93°C.
AT 1800 UTC, A BUOY (23459) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 14.0°N/87.0°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE 1005.4 HPA, SST 29.3°C AND WIND 300°/18 KNOTS; ANOTHER BUOY (23093) LOCATED NEAR
LAT. 16.3°N / 87.9°E REPORTED SST 29.2°C AND WIND 90°/26 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS
THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 200 X10-5 SEC-1
TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20 X10-5 S
-1 CLOSE TO THE
SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 S
-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND IS ABOUT 20-25
KNOTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE RIDGE RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG 17°N NORTH
OVER BAY OF BENGAL REGION. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL OF 80-110 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 29-30°C AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER NORTH THAILAND .THE SYSTEM LIES IN THE SOUTH EASTEREN PERIPERY OF
ABOVE ANTICYLONE. AS A RESULT , IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS. THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 20° N. HENCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOMETIME TILL 20°N AND RECURVED NORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN WESTERLIES IS ALSO LIKELY TO APPROACH
TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT FROM 9TH ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FIELD OF
STRONGER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND HENCE IT WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALSO, SST IS COOLER OVER THE NORTH BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM 9TH ONWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE NWP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ANALYSIS.
NIC STORM ‘BULBUL’ (PRONOUNCED AS BUL BUL) OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND ADJOING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 7
TH NOVEMBER 2019,
OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LAT.16.4°N AND LONG.
87.8°E ABOUT 450 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 580 KM SOUTH OF SAGAR ISLANDS
(42903) AND 670 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER TILL EARLY MORNING OF 9TH NOVEMBER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE INITIALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS FOR NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN NEARLY NORTHWARDS TILL 9TH NOVEMBER
MORNING. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS WEST
BENGAL - BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL) AND KHEPUPARA
(BANGLADESH) DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF 10TH NOVEMBER.
CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T 3.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
BETWEEN LAT. 13.0°N TO 20.0°N AND LONG. 85.0°E TO 91.5°E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93°C.
AT 1800 UTC, A BUOY (23459) LOCATED NEAR LAT. 14.0°N/87.0°E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE 1005.4 HPA, SST 29.3°C AND WIND 300°/18 KNOTS; ANOTHER BUOY (23093) LOCATED NEAR
LAT. 16.3°N / 87.9°E REPORTED SST 29.2°C AND WIND 90°/26 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
REMARKS
THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 200 X10-5 SEC-1
TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20 X10-5 S
-1 CLOSE TO THE
SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 S
-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND IS ABOUT 20-25
KNOTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE RIDGE RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG 17°N NORTH
OVER BAY OF BENGAL REGION. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL OF 80-110 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 29-30°C AROUND THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER NORTH THAILAND .THE SYSTEM LIES IN THE SOUTH EASTEREN PERIPERY OF
ABOVE ANTICYLONE. AS A RESULT , IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS. THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 20° N. HENCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOMETIME TILL 20°N AND RECURVED NORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN WESTERLIES IS ALSO LIKELY TO APPROACH
TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT FROM 9TH ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FIELD OF
STRONGER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND HENCE IT WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALSO, SST IS COOLER OVER THE NORTH BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM 9TH ONWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE NWP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ANALYSIS.
