emergency manager2 December 2017
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘OCKHI’ OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA
The very severe cyclone Ockhi continues its devastation run.It is reported that by 2nd Dec, about 17 persons have lost their lives.Property worth millions has been destroyed.However,exact nature and magnitude of damage will be know ,when this cyclone subsides or passes out of southern India.
The very severe cyclonic storm ‘Ockhi’ over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian sea moved west-north-westwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0000 utc of 02 nd December, 2017 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian sea near latitude 9.6º n and longitude 71.5º e, about 230 km west northwest of Minicoy (43369) and 215 km south southwest of Amini Divi (43311).
The system is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to continue to move west-north-westwards across Lakshadweep islands during next 24 hours and then recurve north-eastwards during the subsequent 48 hours. Date/time(utc) position (lat. 0n/ long. 0 e) maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) category of cyclonic disturbance 02/0000 9.6/71.5 130-140 gusting to 155 very severe cyclonic storm 02/0600 10.0/71.0 135-145 gusting to 160 very severe cyclonic storm 02/1200 10.5/70.4 140-150 gusting to 165 very severe cyclonic storm 02/1800 11.1/69.8 145-155 gusting to 170 very severe cyclonic storm 03/0000 11.8/69.5 150-160 gusting to 175 very severe cyclonic storm 03/1200 13.5/68.9 140-150 gusting to 165 very severe cyclonic storm 04/0000 14.9/69.1 115-125 gusting to 140 severe cyclonic storm 04/1200 16.3/69.5 90-100 gusting to 110 severe cyclonic storm 05/0000 18.2/70.8 70-80 gusting to 90 cyclonic storm 05/1200 19.9/71.7 50-60 gusting to 70 deep depression 06/0000 21.3/72.4 30-40 gusting to 60 depression probability of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) nil: 0%, low: 1-25%, fair: 26-50%, moderate: 51-75% and high: 76-100% as per the latest satellite imagery the intensity is t4.5.
The satellite imagery indicates that the eye is visible within CDO, with rain band clouds wrapping to the north and northwest of the system. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over area between latitude 7 0n and 12.0 0n and longitude 67.00 e to 74.00 e and Lakshadweep area. The minimum cloud top temperature is minus 93 deg c.
At 0000 utc Amini Divi (43311) reported mean sea level pressure of 1003.1 and surface wind speed of 070 0 / 15 knots. The estimated central pressure is about 978 hpa and the maximum sustained surface wind speed is 75 knots gusting to 85 knots. State of sea is phenomenal around system centre. Sea conditions would be phenomenal over and around Lakshadweep islands during next 24 hours and very high during subsequent 24 hours.
Sea conditions would be very rough along & off Kerala coast during next 24 hours and along & off Karnataka coast during next 48 hours. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along latitude 14 0n. Hence the winds are nearly southeasterly over southeast Arabian sea. The sea surface temperature over the region is 28-30 0c.
the ocean thermal energy is about 100 kj/cm2 over the area. The vertical wind shear is moderate to high (20-25 knots) to the northwest of the system centre. However, the relative shear is favourable for further intensification of the system for some more time. The low level relative vorticity is around 250x10-6 s -1 around the system centre. Low level convergence is around 30x10 -5 s -1 around the system centre. Upper level divergence is about 20 x 10 -5 s -1 to the south of the system centre. Madden Julian oscillation (mjo) lies in phase 4 with amplitude more than 1 and is likely to remain in phase 4 for the next two days. After 24 hours the system will experience higher wind shear with further northward movement. Also it will be influnced by the mid-latitude dry and cold westerlies in the middle and upper tropospheric levels.
Due to these environmental conditions it is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours and then weaken gradually. The system is likely to be steered by winds at the periphery of the anti cyclone and hence likely to recurve northwards and then north-eastwards from the forenoon of 03rd December. The nwp models are also in agreement with the above conclusions. Well marked low pressure area over south Andaman sea: the well marked low pressure area over south Andaman sea and adjoining Malacca strait persists. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwest wards towards north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts.
emergency manager2 December 2017
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘OCKHI’ OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA
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The very severe cyclone Ockhi continues its devastation run.It is reported that by 2nd Dec, about 17 persons have lost their lives.Property worth millions has been destroyed.However,exact nature and magnitude of damage will be know ,when this cyclone subsides or passes out of southern India.
The very severe cyclonic storm ‘Ockhi’ over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian sea moved west-north-westwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0000 utc of 02 nd December, 2017 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian sea near latitude 9.6º n and longitude 71.5º e, about 230 km west northwest of Minicoy (43369) and 215 km south southwest of Amini Divi (43311).
The system is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to continue to move west-north-westwards across Lakshadweep islands during next 24 hours and then recurve north-eastwards during the subsequent 48 hours. Date/time(utc) position (lat. 0n/ long. 0 e) maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) category of cyclonic disturbance 02/0000 9.6/71.5 130-140 gusting to 155 very severe cyclonic storm 02/0600 10.0/71.0 135-145 gusting to 160 very severe cyclonic storm 02/1200 10.5/70.4 140-150 gusting to 165 very severe cyclonic storm 02/1800 11.1/69.8 145-155 gusting to 170 very severe cyclonic storm 03/0000 11.8/69.5 150-160 gusting to 175 very severe cyclonic storm 03/1200 13.5/68.9 140-150 gusting to 165 very severe cyclonic storm 04/0000 14.9/69.1 115-125 gusting to 140 severe cyclonic storm 04/1200 16.3/69.5 90-100 gusting to 110 severe cyclonic storm 05/0000 18.2/70.8 70-80 gusting to 90 cyclonic storm 05/1200 19.9/71.7 50-60 gusting to 70 deep depression 06/0000 21.3/72.4 30-40 gusting to 60 depression probability of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) nil: 0%, low: 1-25%, fair: 26-50%, moderate: 51-75% and high: 76-100% as per the latest satellite imagery the intensity is t4.5.
The satellite imagery indicates that the eye is visible within CDO, with rain band clouds wrapping to the north and northwest of the system. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lie over area between latitude 7 0n and 12.0 0n and longitude 67.00 e to 74.00 e and Lakshadweep area. The minimum cloud top temperature is minus 93 deg c.
At 0000 utc Amini Divi (43311) reported mean sea level pressure of 1003.1 and surface wind speed of 070 0 / 15 knots. The estimated central pressure is about 978 hpa and the maximum sustained surface wind speed is 75 knots gusting to 85 knots. State of sea is phenomenal around system centre. Sea conditions would be phenomenal over and around Lakshadweep islands during next 24 hours and very high during subsequent 24 hours.
Sea conditions would be very rough along & off Kerala coast during next 24 hours and along & off Karnataka coast during next 48 hours. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along latitude 14 0n. Hence the winds are nearly southeasterly over southeast Arabian sea. The sea surface temperature over the region is 28-30 0c.
the ocean thermal energy is about 100 kj/cm2 over the area. The vertical wind shear is moderate to high (20-25 knots) to the northwest of the system centre. However, the relative shear is favourable for further intensification of the system for some more time. The low level relative vorticity is around 250x10-6 s -1 around the system centre. Low level convergence is around 30x10 -5 s -1 around the system centre. Upper level divergence is about 20 x 10 -5 s -1 to the south of the system centre. Madden Julian oscillation (mjo) lies in phase 4 with amplitude more than 1 and is likely to remain in phase 4 for the next two days. After 24 hours the system will experience higher wind shear with further northward movement. Also it will be influnced by the mid-latitude dry and cold westerlies in the middle and upper tropospheric levels.
Due to these environmental conditions it is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours and then weaken gradually. The system is likely to be steered by winds at the periphery of the anti cyclone and hence likely to recurve northwards and then north-eastwards from the forenoon of 03rd December. The nwp models are also in agreement with the above conclusions. Well marked low pressure area over south Andaman sea: the well marked low pressure area over south Andaman sea and adjoining Malacca strait persists. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwest wards towards north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts.
