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Cyclone Bulbul to intensify into very severe cyclone further as it is showing intensity slightly till early morning of 9th November. It is very likely to move nearly northwards for some more time and re-curve North-Eastwards thereafter.
It is very likely to cross West Bengal-Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across Sunderban delta by midnight of 9th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph.
The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Bulbul (pronounced as Bul bul) over West-Central & adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal moved Northwards with a speed of 17 kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centered at 1730 hours IST, 08th November, 2019, over North-West & adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal, near Latitude 18.5°N and Longitude 87.6°E, about 220 km South-Southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 350 km South-Southwest of Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and 470 km South-Southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently in phase 6 with amplitude greaterthan1. During week 1 it will move across phases 6,7 and 8with amplitude remaining greater than1. It will move to phase 1 in week 2 and remain there throughout the week 2 with amplitude remaining more than 1.Thus MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over the Arabian Sea during week 1 for cyclogenesis.
Most of the models including ECMWF, NCMRWF UNIFIED MODELS (NCUM), NCMRWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (NEPS), IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), NCEP GFS, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECATING SYSTEM (GEFS), IMD HWRF are indicating that the cyclonic storm Bulbul over Bay of Bengal isvery likely to intensify further upto very severe cyclonic storm stage.
It is also very likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then north-eastwards towards West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts.
Considering all the above, there is high probability that the cyclonic storm Bulbul will intensify further and move north-northwestwards initially and then northeastwards towards West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts during first haly of week 1.
Will another cyclone arise in near future ?
The environmental features are also supporting the predicted model forecast. Models are also not indicating any fresh development over The Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during the entire period.
No cyclogenesis is predicted over both the basins during rest of the period.
Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall very likely over north coastal districts of Odisha with isolated heavy falls over Puri, Kendrapara , Jagatsinghpur and Bhadrak districts on 8th November; and heavy to heavy falls over Balasore, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur and Bhadrak districts on 9th November, 2019.
Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls over North & South 24Parganas and east Medinipur districts on 8th November and heavy to heavy falls at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over North & South 24 Parganas and East & West Medinipur districts on 9th November, 2019.
Heavy to heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Howrah and Hooghly on 9th November, 2019.
The Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining nrth Pakistan at mid-tropospheric levels very likely to cause light precipitation over Western Himalayan Region on today and move east-North Eastwards thereafter
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